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Weekly Forex analysis: The fear of a new recession causes heavy losses in global stock markets


EUR/USD: The euro has continued to appreciate to make highs near 1.13 dollars per euro. The words of Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of United States warning on global risks and hinting that could delay further increases in interest rates, contributed to the acceleration of this movement despite expectations that Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) to make new moves in monetary policy this March. 

Weekly Levels: Support in 1.0889/1.0692/1.0534; Resistance in 1.1568/1.1631/1.1718. 

Technically the trend is sideways.

USD/JPY: during the week, the yen has continued to appreciate to levels of October 2014, driven by the sharp increase in the volatility of the main risk assets which have returned to assert their character as a safe haven. This scenario has joined the weakness in the dollar after recent statements by Yellen. 

Weekly Levels: Support in 110.14/106.82/105.07; Resistance in 115.99/118.9/121.67. 

Technically the trend is sideways.

EUR/GBP: during the week, continued the downward movement on GBP, in line with lower expectations of rising interest rates implied by Gilt (even some consider possible declines in interest rates). Moreover, uncertainty about the referendum on the exit from the eurozone increases the selling pressure on the pound. 

Weekly levels: Support in 0.7517/0.7419/0.7315; Resistance in 0.7876/0.7979/0.804. 

Technically, the long-term trend is sideway.

EUR/CHF: the increase in risk aversion coupled with expectations of further monetary laxity in the Eurozone have led the currency pair during the week to correct much of the movement of depreciation in recent sessions, returning to the range of  intervention of SNB.

Currencies of emerging economies

USD/BLR: the currency pair has been mainly affected by the January inflation data, which has reached the highest level since November 2003, and the evolution of commodity prices. 

Weekly levels: Support in: 3.8362/3.6883/3.5709; Resistance in  4.1753/4.2061/4.2489. 

Technically the trend is bullish.

USD/MXN: further declines in Brent oil and global financial uncertainty have dragged the peso, which has come to mark levels around 19. 

Weekly Levels: Support  in 18.0025/17.6962/17.3114; Resistance in 19.129/19.3612/19.7723. 

Technically the trend is bullish.



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